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Signum Research

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Signum Research

Signum Research es una empresa independiente de análisis financiero y bursátil conformada por analistas y expertos de amplia experiencia en el medio y por un consejo de asesores integrado por personalidades de alto reconocimiento en los mercados financieros. Signum Research cuenta con la más avanzada tecnología y sistemas que le permiten realizar sus cálculos y modelos analíticos de manera eficiente, en tiempo real, y publicarlos oportunamente en su portal de análisis financiero.<br /> Nos hemos establecido como meta el producir el mejor análisis bursátil independiente: un análisis oportuno, sencillo, confiable, asequible e interesante, de manera que los mercados financieros puedan ser intelectualmente accesibles a una mayor parte de la población. Nuestro objetivo final es, a través de nuestro análisis, encontrar la señal detrás del ruido cotidiano en los mercados, una señal que fundamente sólidamente nuestras recomendaciones de inversión.<br /> En Signum Research sabemos que los mercados financieros son una importante herramienta de desarrollo, Signum Research busca contribuir en la difusión de una cultura financiera y de inversión que permita a quien carezca de experiencia –pero que tenga el interés- participar del progreso que brindan los mercados financieros.<br /> Signum Research se ha asociado con The Competitive Intelligence Unit, una empresa de consultoría estratégica especializada en áreas de análisis de oportunidades de negocio, telecomunicaciones, regulación y economía para desarrollar y publicar análisis sectoriales y en materia de regulación.
17.apr.18

Signum Perspectives

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V.

We expect total first quarter 2018 sales growth of 14% compared to the year-ago period.

Same-store sales in Mexico should remain solid driven by ongoing consumption strength and good performance from the company’s brands.

The company will try to replicate the progress Domino´s Pizza has made with technological applications with other brands.

The company has announced that it will close some of its Burger King operations in Mexico and only keep 181 of the 205 units it operated. However, this will not be fully reflected this quarter, as the announcement only made in the first week of March.

Alsea’s Ebitda margin should remain stable compared to the previous quarter as the company still has expenses related to the start-up of the Operations Center, which should be ready as of this quarter.

We expect a good report, which should continue to drive the share price which had come under pressure; however, now that uncertainty surrounding NAFTA has eased, we think the share price could recover.

Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.

We project consolidated sales growth of +16% for the first quarter. Part of the increase should stem from the recent acquisitions of Coca-Cola Femsa.

In the case of KOF, we expect volume to begin to show an incipient recovery, but input costs could continue to put pressure on margins. This quarter will continue to reflect the change in the accounting of the Venezuela operations but it concerns a virtual cash outflow.

In the case of Femsa Comercio, the OXXO stores should post solid same-store sales growth, as consumption remains strong and the number of services the stores offer has increased, which boosts client traffic.

Gasoline division sales should continue to be driven by a higher gasoline price. The operating margin should remain stable and ROIC should continue to increase.

This year the health division should continue to improve as progress is made with the integration of the three current brands, which should bolster the Mexico operation.

The Ebitda margin should remain under pressure, mainly as a result of the integration of the Coca-Cola Femsa operations.

The share price has been reacting to NAFTA renegotiation expectations. Given that expectations of a favorable outcome have recently increased, the share price could continue to recover.

Our rating is BUY with an end-2018 target price of P$191 per share.

El Puerto de Liverpool, S.A.B. de C.V

We project same-store sales growth of slightly more than 6%, as client traffic has recovered and given an increase in the average purchase ticket, there should be an improvement.

This year Easter Week fell in March, which should underpin the sales comparison.

client portfolio to continue to post double-digit growth, but do not expect past due loans to show a substantial improvement. Although the company has sought to improve the sales level, credit continues to play an important role in improving sales.

Lease sales may continue to be impacted by the Coapa mall closure.

The Ebitda margin will continue to be impacted by the inclusion of the Suburbia operations and additional related expenses.

We envisage a good report which should be an improvement on the first half of 2017. Peso appreciation should also underpin the share price, as it implies no price increases.

Our rating is BUY with an end-2018 target price of P$175 per share.

Wal-Mart de México, S.A.B. de C.V.

First quarter total sales should grow +9.3% compared to the same year-ago period derived from growth of +11.3% in Mexico and +1.4% in Central America.

Same-store sales growth in Mexico should be +10.0% and +7.1% for Central America excluding exchange rate fluctuations.

This quarter has a better comparison base, as Easter Week fell in March vs. April last year. As many stores are located in vacation spots, the company should continue to capture those sales this season.

Growth should remain above the competition, implying ongoing market share gains reinforced by quarterly growth in store traffic in Mexico which did not occur in 2017.

The company continues to make progress in terms of operating productivity resulting in a higher gross margin which along with strict savings and expense control should bring about a 10 bp increase in the Ebitda margin taking it to 9.8% for the first quarter.

In March Walmex announced 2018 Capex of P$20.9 bn, 20% above 2017’s P$17.4 bn, although it is still 3% of sales compared to 2.7% last year.

The company has approved a 2018 dividend of P$1.65 per share, which corresponds to an ordinary dividend of P$0.76 and an extraordinary dividend of P$0.89 per share. The dividend yield is 3.3% vs. the last price.

We expect a very good report in terms of both sales and profitability. We believe that results are mostly priced into the share price, but if the report tops our expectations, we may raise our target price.

Our rating is BUY with an end-2018 target price of P$52 per share.



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