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Signum Research

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Signum Research

Signum Research es una empresa independiente de análisis financiero y bursátil conformada por analistas y expertos de amplia experiencia en el medio y por un consejo de asesores integrado por personalidades de alto reconocimiento en los mercados financieros. Signum Research cuenta con la más avanzada tecnología y sistemas que le permiten realizar sus cálculos y modelos analíticos de manera eficiente, en tiempo real, y publicarlos oportunamente en su portal de análisis financiero.<br /> Nos hemos establecido como meta el producir el mejor análisis bursátil independiente: un análisis oportuno, sencillo, confiable, asequible e interesante, de manera que los mercados financieros puedan ser intelectualmente accesibles a una mayor parte de la población. Nuestro objetivo final es, a través de nuestro análisis, encontrar la señal detrás del ruido cotidiano en los mercados, una señal que fundamente sólidamente nuestras recomendaciones de inversión.<br /> En Signum Research sabemos que los mercados financieros son una importante herramienta de desarrollo, Signum Research busca contribuir en la difusión de una cultura financiera y de inversión que permita a quien carezca de experiencia –pero que tenga el interés- participar del progreso que brindan los mercados financieros.<br /> Signum Research se ha asociado con The Competitive Intelligence Unit, una empresa de consultoría estratégica especializada en áreas de análisis de oportunidades de negocio, telecomunicaciones, regulación y economía para desarrollar y publicar análisis sectoriales y en materia de regulación.
22.may.18

Signum Perspectives

Shopping List

Given the strong recent market correction, we present our Shopping List of companies we believe have attractive upside potential and solid fundamentals in the current circumstances. Concern over a possible political transition could translate into strong peso depreciation, so our list includes companies with dollar-denominated sales and/or in defensive sectors. We should add that the IPyC’s Enterprise Value/Ebitda Multiple is at a historically low percentile from where we think it could stage a rebound in the short term, given the properties of this multiple, which shows a stationary mean and variance.

arca continental, s.a.b. de c.v.

AC * (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$150.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 29.67%) AC has a leading position in soft drinks, water and snacks production in the areas where it operates. Besides its strong cash generation and solid financial structure, its net debt / Ebitda ratio is 1.1x, which should enable it to continue to pursue acquisition-led growth. Around one third of its revenues are dollar denominated.

alfa, s.a.b. de c.v.

ALFA A (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$25.40.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 19.14%) Alfa recorded Q118 double-digit revenue and Ebitda growth due to solid performance form the U.S. and Mexico industrial sectors and its subsidiaries’ expansion plans. In the coming months, we expect Alfa to reap the benefits of synergies from Sigma’s new acquisitions as well as the transfer of Nemak’s aluminum overruns and the acquisition of the Alpel’s PET/PTA plan. The company also expects additional revenues from Newpek’s asset sale program to raise funds for new investments in Mexico in both the oil sector and sectors it participates in.

américa móvil, s.a.b. de c.v.

AMX L (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$19.50, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 21.80%) We believe AMX has solid fundamentals, which include high growth in the data business, strong free cash generation, a focus on debt reduction, a leading position in the Latin American telecommunications market and recognized management.

compañía minera autlán, s.a.b. de c.v.

AUTLAN B (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$23.50, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 30.92%) The acquisition of Metallorum, a company that focuses on precious metal extraction, diversifies the product mix by including metals with different cycles to industrial metals. Autlan expects Ebitda to growth 20% YoY as a result of this acquisition. The integration should occur before the third quarter of 2018. The company currently trades at an EV/Ebitda multiple of 2.9x compared to a multiple of 4.6x for the international industrial metals industry.

industrias bachoco, s.a.b. de c.v.

BACHOCO B (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$107.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 13.20%) Bachoco has attractive long-term growth potential due to higher per capital chicken and egg consumption in Mexico. The company also has a very solid financial structure which includes strong free cash Flow and is Mexico’s largest poultry producer. We think BACHOCO will continue to grow through acquisitions of related businesses.

banco del bajio, s.a., institución de banca múltiple

BBAJIO O (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$42.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 9.89%) The bank continues to display some of the best metrics in the market. Its loan portfolio continues to display above-industry growth while the percentage of past due loans is still among the lowest. Net profit rose 43% YoY for the first quarter while ROAE as 19.3% on track to meet 2018 guidance.

crédito real, s.a.b. de c.v., sofom, e.r.

CREAL * (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$36.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 50.75%) The company has reported solid growth rates, especially in the payroll segment and at Instacrédit, its main sources of revenue. Past due loans have remained stable. The company has maintained a cautious approach and increased loan loss coverage to 1.83x. The company’s financial structure remains solid; almost 60% of debt has a more than three- year maturity and 56% was taken out at a fixed interest rate. At 0.7x, the P/BV multiple ranks among the most attractive of the sector.

fibra shop portafolios inmobiliarios, s.a.p.i. de c.v.

FSHOP 13 (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$14.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 40.00%) We expect to see ongoing attractive occupancy rates along with improvements in revenues and Ebitda in line with portfolio growth and the inclusion of “Puerta La Victoria”. The Fibra is currently in the process of developing two important assets that should underpin medium-term results. Margins have remained strong, surpassing the retail sector average in general. We believe the Fibra could maintain these metrics in the coming quarters. At current FSHOP prices, the dividend yield is 10.7%, the most attractive of the sector based on dividend distributions as at Q118.

grupo méxico, s.a.b. de c.v.

GMEXICO B (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$74.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 32.74%) We believe that growing copper prices could underpin Q218 results YoY despite lower copper production. Furthermore, the cash cost per pound of copper reported in Q118 was one of the lowest recorded by GMEXICO and the industry. The company currently trades at an Enterprise Value / Ebitda multiple of 4.82x compared to a country risk-adjusted multiple of 6.1x for a sample of international peers.

gruma, s.a.b. de c.v.

GRUMA B (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$261.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 23.40%) We believe that GRUMA’s current share price is clearly a long-term investment opportunity. The company has a leading position in corn flour and tortilla production, generates strong free cash Flow, has a solid financial structure and ROE is higher than for comparable food companies. Furthermore, most of its revenues are denominated in foreign currency.

mexichem, s.a.b. de c.v.

MEXCHEM * (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$67.34, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 20.14%) With the integration of Netafim, the company is expected to achieve YoY sales growth of around +18%, and with the ethylene cracker working at full capacity, costs could come down by as much as 13% YoY. The current situation in the U.S. petrochemical sector and European plastics markets along with the company’s recent acquisitions, could constitute an important medium and long-term inflection point.

industrias peñoles, s.a.b. de c.v.

PE&OLES * (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$558.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 63.29%) Recent peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar benefits the company’s margins, as sales are in dollars and expenses in pesos. PE&OLES offers an important exchange rate hedge and exposure to precious metals, which account for 50% of sales. The company has four large projects in place to boost production and make costs efficient, three of which should come on stream this year. The stock trades at an Enterprise Value / Ebitda multiple of 5.58x compared to a country risk-adjusted multiple of 6.95x for an international sample of comparable companies.

wal-mart de méxico, s.a.b. de c.v.

WALMEX * (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$52.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 6.19%) Walmex continues to record solid fundamentals and is a defensive play given Mexico’s currently complicated environment. Store openings have contributed more to total growth indicating strong consumer dynamism and rapid maturity. Prospects for the year are favorable in terms of both sales and profitability margin expansion. Sales rose +2.0% YoY in April, driven by sales growth in Mexico. Low exposure to peso depreciation. The recent share price correction is unwarranted, so we recommend taking positions in the stock. The company pays a high dividend yield of 3% compared to the industry.

proteak uno, s.a.b. de c.v.

TEAK CPO (BUY; Q418 T.P: P$30.00, UPSIDE POTENTIAL: 91.08%) The company has dollar-denominated sales and biological assets making it defensive in the current foreign exchange environment. TEAK will continue to make important operating improvements that should boost operating margins in the second half of 2018. TEAK is in the process of a share subscription consisting of an issuance of 36 million CPOs at a price of P$18.01 each, or +13.2% above the current market price. If this issuance goes ahead, possibly at the end of May, the company will be in a better position to access bank loans at better terms and costs.



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