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Signum Research

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Signum Research

Signum Research es una empresa independiente de análisis financiero y bursátil conformada por analistas y expertos de amplia experiencia en el medio y por un consejo de asesores integrado por personalidades de alto reconocimiento en los mercados financieros. Signum Research cuenta con la más avanzada tecnología y sistemas que le permiten realizar sus cálculos y modelos analíticos de manera eficiente, en tiempo real, y publicarlos oportunamente en su portal de análisis financiero.<br /> Nos hemos establecido como meta el producir el mejor análisis bursátil independiente: un análisis oportuno, sencillo, confiable, asequible e interesante, de manera que los mercados financieros puedan ser intelectualmente accesibles a una mayor parte de la población. Nuestro objetivo final es, a través de nuestro análisis, encontrar la señal detrás del ruido cotidiano en los mercados, una señal que fundamente sólidamente nuestras recomendaciones de inversión.<br /> En Signum Research sabemos que los mercados financieros son una importante herramienta de desarrollo, Signum Research busca contribuir en la difusión de una cultura financiera y de inversión que permita a quien carezca de experiencia –pero que tenga el interés- participar del progreso que brindan los mercados financieros.<br /> Signum Research se ha asociado con The Competitive Intelligence Unit, una empresa de consultoría estratégica especializada en áreas de análisis de oportunidades de negocio, telecomunicaciones, regulación y economía para desarrollar y publicar análisis sectoriales y en materia de regulación.
08.dec.15

Financial Groups

Quarterly Results

Aggregate quarterly figures for the 7 main financial groups confirm that business volumes rose in terms of both loan placements and deposits, but margins were under pressure. Results reflect an improvement in the quality of assets and weakness in trading income. Generally speaking, the numbers point to stronger results for financial groups in 2016.

Higher Volumes

Third quarter business volumes registered their strongest growth rate since 2012. Loan placements were up 15% quarter on quarter while traditional deposits (demand and time) rose 15.6%. This confirms a change of trend compared to the modest growth rates of 2013 and 201. Although some of the impetus may have come from companies seeking to refinance ahead of interest rate hikes, we think that quarterly growth is indicative of a pick-up in the coming quarters. Given prospects of strong economic growth in 2016 and 2017 and improved consumer confidence, we envisage a more favorable environment for credit in 2016 compared to the previous two years.

Regarding loan placement, growth was driven mainly by corporate loans, a segment that has represented 51% of the incremental loan volume (P$218,000 million). Government loans also underpinned growth accounting for 18% of additional volume (P$79 billion). Thus, total loans are weighted more towards lower margins at the expense of consumer segments with better rates.

Groups that posted the strongest growth over the last 12 months were Banregio (+24.6%), Inbursa (21.6%), which consolidated Banco Walmart, and Scotiabank (+19.5%). 19.2% growth in Santander’s loan portfolio ranked it the second largest financial group in terms of loan placement in September ahead of Banamex. Santander achieved this through double-digit growth rates across segments, mainly the corporate and government loan portfolio (+21% in both cases). Banorte, on the other hand, recorded the lowest credit growth of the banking sector (11.7%).

Rate erosion

Volume growth was not fully reflected in quarterly results. At the aggregate level, interest income rose 6% vs. 2014-III (and only 3% for the last 12 months). This can be partially attributed to portfolio rebalancing in favor of cheaper credit (corporate and government) to the detriment of consumer loans with higher rates (credit cards and personal loans). The weight of the former in the loan portfolio rose by 179 basis points, while the weight of the latter contracted 85 basis points.

However, given the size of the rate erosion, it is clear that the strength of the competition, whether or not the result of financial reform and portability, has also played a role. In a context of steady reference rates, no financial group has reported an increase in its lending rate for the last twelve months, and the average rate decreased by 58 basis points over that period. We expect this rate erosion to continue in 2016 as all of the groups consolidate their mortgage loan portability offers. Despite an environment of lackluster consumer loan growth (mainly credit cards and to a lesser extent consumer loans), we still expect groups with relatively greater liquidity to launch more aggressive offers in these segments.

Two factors have partially offset this adjustment. The first is growth in traditional deposits, which funded most of the portfolio at very competitive costs, and the second is the improvement in asset quality.

Traditional deposits rose P$435 billion vs. 2014-III, or 15.6% with 64% of that amount coming from demand deposits. As a result, interest expense decreased 1% in the quarter, which in turn eased the impact of the fall in the lending rate by limiting the decrease in the net interest margin to 24 basis points. Furthermore, the quality of the loan portfolio continues to improve. At the end of 2015-III, the non-performing loan ratio had decreased to 2.8%, 15 basis points below 2015-II and 49 basis points below 2014-III. As a result, the slip in the risk-adjusted net interest margin was only 21 bp.

Trading income weakness offset greater operating efficiency

Trading income for the quarter weighed on group results. Exchange rate, interest rate, and equity market volatility translated into adverse comparisons for the sector as a whole. Aggregate trading income losses amounted to P$2.3 billion compared to trading income of P$7 billion in both 2014-III and 2015-II. Over the last 12 months, trading income has slumped 81% compared to the same year-ago period. This was enough to offset the benefits that larger scale should have had on operating efficiency as well as efforts to boost productivity (Banorte). In light of this, and despite positive signals for 2016, sector profitability declined again in 2015-III to 13%.



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