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Signum Research

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Signum Research

Signum Research es una empresa independiente de análisis financiero y bursátil conformada por analistas y expertos de amplia experiencia en el medio y por un consejo de asesores integrado por personalidades de alto reconocimiento en los mercados financieros. Signum Research cuenta con la más avanzada tecnología y sistemas que le permiten realizar sus cálculos y modelos analíticos de manera eficiente, en tiempo real, y publicarlos oportunamente en su portal de análisis financiero.<br /> Nos hemos establecido como meta el producir el mejor análisis bursátil independiente: un análisis oportuno, sencillo, confiable, asequible e interesante, de manera que los mercados financieros puedan ser intelectualmente accesibles a una mayor parte de la población. Nuestro objetivo final es, a través de nuestro análisis, encontrar la señal detrás del ruido cotidiano en los mercados, una señal que fundamente sólidamente nuestras recomendaciones de inversión.<br /> En Signum Research sabemos que los mercados financieros son una importante herramienta de desarrollo, Signum Research busca contribuir en la difusión de una cultura financiera y de inversión que permita a quien carezca de experiencia –pero que tenga el interés- participar del progreso que brindan los mercados financieros.<br /> Signum Research se ha asociado con The Competitive Intelligence Unit, una empresa de consultoría estratégica especializada en áreas de análisis de oportunidades de negocio, telecomunicaciones, regulación y economía para desarrollar y publicar análisis sectoriales y en materia de regulación.
13.dec.16

Signum Perspectives

El Buen Fin (The Good Weekend)

Background

For the sixth year in a row, Mexico held El Buen Fin (The Good Weekend), an annual nationwide shopping event that is highly anticipated by consumers.

The 2016 sales of Mexico’s main retail chains registered historically high growth.

As at October, total sales were up +10.0% and same-store sales +6.7%, well above Antad’s estimates for the entire year. Total sales are expected to grow +6.9% for the year, and same-store sales +3.9%.

Retail sales growth was expected to slow this year due to a higher comparison base and weaker consumer confidence, partly owing to exchange rate depreciation with which sales bear a negative correlation.

Nevertheless, consumption has remained dynamic. Increased competition in the retail sector has been the main boost, which in turn has translated into more promotions, which have been driving consumer spending.

More remittances have also underpinned sales. Around 60% of remittances are used in Antad associated stores, which has given the sector a major push.

Given this year’s strong growth rate, we expected sales growth related to El Buen Fin to be modest, as special sales in previous months had accounted for much of the season’s sales.

But El Buen Fin sales were strong with retailers experiencing very registering growth rates.

We believe that most of the sales can be attributed to Trump winning the US presidency. The retail sector is one of the most defensive with respect to Trump’s election, being underpinned by domestic consumption, although it could suffer some impact on several fronts related to peso depreciation.

One such impact would be on consumer confidence. A level of confidence consistently below 90 points has a direct effect on consumer decisions, mainly limiting the purchase of consumer durables (many of which are imported or denominated in dollars), and thereby stymying sales growth at department or specialty stores. Another is the direct impact on the prices of imported goods, as around 20% of a department store’s merchandise is imported.

To the extent peso depreciation exceeds real wage growth, it undermines the population’s purchasing power, squeezing demand for such products.

To a lesser extent (around 5%) supermarkets also sell imported products, prices of which would become relatively more expensive, thus impacting sales.

If there is no direct pass-through, and companies opt to absorb part of the price increase caused by peso depreciation, profitability margins could come under pressure. This would force companies to seek more cost and expense savings, putting pressure on the production and distribution chains as well as on logistics.

In this scenario, retail chains with a relatively bigger presence in northern Mexico could offset some of the sales loss, as it would be relatively more expensive to cross the border to buy goods.

Retail outlets located in southern Mexico on the other hand would receive the biggest impact, as it would be difficult for them to offset the decrease in demand caused by higher prices.

In view of this scenario, and the exchange rate implication for prices of specialty goods at the beginning of next year, we believe that consumers used El Buen Fin to make purchases in anticipation of price increases resulting from a higher exchange rate (or weaker peso).

Main characteristics of El Buen Fin 2016

Store traffic was notably higher than in previous years. As of midnight, people were already camped outside stores offering longer opening hours.

Stores usually play music and offer coffee and a snack to people queuing in order to generate a family atmosphere for the sales event. Stores opening at 12:00 a.m. include price clubs, Sam’s mainly.

We noted that this year, other stores, mainly department stores, also began offering longer opening hours. Last year they opened at 10:00am, one hour earlier, while this year they opened at 8:00am on Monday and Friday, and 9:00am on Saturday and Sunday.

Once again, there were some very big bargains, which not only included interest-free months but also an increasing number of direct discounts.

For the last two years, customers have shied away from credit cards, preferring cash transactions instead, and while interest-free months still boost sales, direct discounts are taking on relatively more weight.

We noticed that retailers were much more efficient at inventory handling. This year, we didn’t see any direct store deliveries the day after or halfway through El Buen Fin when inventories were running low. As this is the sixth event, it is fair to say that companies have become more experienced and will be replenishing stocks in time for December sales.

Another characteristic that stood out about this Buen Fin was the greater share of Internet sales. In many cases, on-line sales with interest-free month plans offered the biggest discounts and promotions.

El Buen Fin sales continued online until the Black Sale and Cyber Monday, offering clients more discount days.

One of the biggest participants in online sales was Amazon, which made daily promotions and offers on its web page and sent out mails. However, department stores and price clubs also put up some stiff competition.

El Palacio de Hierro offered discounts of up to 40% in some departments, notably furniture, electronics, and toys. On top of the discounts, the store offered 18 interest-free months, and the possibility of delaying payment until April, 2017.

Liverpool’s discounts were also as much as 40%, albeit mostly 20%. In some departments, the discount was applied directly, while in others it was given in the form of an electronic purse.

Departments offering the biggest promotions were furniture and household goods, and as Cyber Monday approached, more discounts were offered on electronic devices.

Final remarks

We expect this year’s El Buen Fin sales to be as strong as ever. Despite a high comparison base, expectations of price increases next year owing to a weaker peso got people buying to take advantage of current prices.

Furthermore, companies are offering increasingly more buying opportunities, such as longer shopping hours, direct discounts along with interest-free months, and exclusive online offers.

This time, the promotions (online discounts) extended to Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Economic growth should be weaker next year, so stores should continue to offer aggressive promotions to boost sales.



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