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Joaquín Sánchez

Joaquin Sanchez, CFA
29.may.18

Signum Perspectives

Grupo Aeroportuario de la Ciudad de México, S.A. de C.V.

We recently visited the offices of Grupo Aeroportuario de la Ciudad de México (GACM) to speak to Actuary Mario Vergara, Director of Finance, about the New Mexico City International Airport (NAICM). The development of this project contemplated a number of financing channels including the Fibra E vehicle.

The total estimated cost of the project is US$13.3 bn, 45% of which was raised through Green bonds, US$1.6 bn through Fibra E (ticker FNAIM) and US$1.250 bn from the Federal Budget, which means around US$4.5 is still left to finance.

70% of the financing will come from private investment. The return for FNAIM holders is expected to be a real annual 10% once the duration of the trust ends (15-17 years according to initial estimates). In the event of cancellation, there will be no significant impact on the duration, as the percentage of total distributable cash flow (defined as operating income less operating expenses) to protect the trust’s maturity is from 49% to 80%. Furthermore, if the airport cannot begin operations before 2021, the percentage cash flow distributable to investors would amount to 65%.

GACM said it has a number of options for financing the remaining amount, including: a bigger capital injection from the federal government through the budget, raising the Airport Tax (AT), new FIBRA E issuances and resources from the sale of land pertaining to the current Mexico City International Airport (AICM).

Fibra E holders would have rights to the distributable cash flow of both airports’ operations, but not to assets currently owned by the federal government.

AICM currently belongs to four international airports that do not charge AT and could therefore raise more resources for funding the NAICM project this way. Furthermore, current market levels will determine this interconnection tariffs; in other words, AT prices for international interconnection, which amount to around US$4.5 per passenger in the U.S., would be considered and adjusted to AICM conditions.

At the beginning of the year, AICM updated the AT in line with international market prices. Unlike the other main airport groups (GAP, OMA and ASUR), adjustments to AT are not executed using a Master Development Plan; rather, a proposal is made to the Ministry of Finance, which in turn is submitted to the Ministry of the Economy; the proposal is previously prepared by the AICM’s Operations and Schedules Committee, which airline representatives also sit on. This process takes around 15 days to be approved. As variations in international AT are in U.S. dollars, they are updated in accordance with U.S. inflation.

Passenger traffic and operations

Regarding the passenger traffic mix, we were told that AICM’s international passengers currently represent around 35% of the total, a number that should gradually increase to 50% as the project stabilizes.

NAICM will have three runways that will operate at the same time, while AICM can only operate one runway at a time. Furthermore, these new runways will measure 0.5 km more than AICM’s runway, which will facilitate landings and takeoffs for larger aircraft and benefit passenger traffic.

Air traffic movements at the current airport amount to 450,000 annually, the maximum permitted capacity. An important concept that was mentioned was the load factor, which refers to aircraft’s load capacity. This variable is currently around 70% and is expected to reach 85% with the new airport.

The group will also try to make aeronautical operations more dynamic; the Airbus A380 currently has a per trip capacity of 853 passengers and lands once a day in Mexico City, but should be able to make at least two daily landings at the new airport.

Furthermore, the tunnel shape of NAICM’s structural design will concentrate most passengers in the middle of the terminal, increasing local retail and advertising revenues.

In 2017, 64% of the airport’s revenues came from ATs with non-aeronautical and aeronautical revenues accounted for the remaining 36%. Non-aeronautical revenues per passenger currently average US$5.0.

The new airport is scheduled to open in October 2020 with an air traffic of 55 million passengers. However, AICM’s passenger traffic was around 45 million as of end-2017and could reach 50 million by the end of this year, so NAICM’s initial estimates could be surpassed.

NAICM’s cargo terminal should begin operations with 11 warehouses, whose rent has already been negotiated by large international companies and should have a positive impact in terms of product transportation costs.

NAICM also has a LEED certification, as it is equipped with technologies that should make the project’s operation sustainable. There will be a water treatment plant and an energy generation plant, which could translate into higher margins for NAICM vs. AICM currently.

The project will be built with funnels whose main function will be to capture solar and wind energy as well as rain water. This should underpin the operating margins of the new airport compared to current ones.

We will keep investors informed about the project’s progress and our recommendation for the FNAIM certificate price.



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