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Signum Research

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Joaquín Sánchez

Joaquin Sanchez, CFA
23.oct.18

Signum Perspectives

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International markets remain volatile. The IPyC has reached 46,600 points, down by around 9% since its year-to-date high (51,065.5 points). The companies mentioned below display solid fundamentals and defensive characteristics in the current economic environment, which includes strong currency depreciation.

FOMENTO ECONÓMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.

FEMSA UBD (BUY; Q419 TP: P$202.00, expected total return: 12.3%)

Business diversification has contributed to Femsa’s good results.

OXXO store openings should continue to drive the retail division along with the same-store sales of stores with relatively higher customer traffic.

The drugstore division in Mexico continues to improve, driving consolidated results.

Profitability margins should remain stable.

GRUPO MÉXICO, S.A.B. DE C.V.

GMEXICO B (BUY; Q419 TP: P$74.00, expected total return: 55.7%)

Although the average copper price was lower year on year, we expect it to be partially offset by a higher production volume in the coming quarters.

Furthermore, around 95% of Grupo México’s revenues are dollar denominated, whereas only 50% of production costs are in pesos, so peso depreciation could translate into better margins.

In recent quarters, the cash cost per pound of copper has been one of the lowest recorded by the company and is the lowest of the industry.

The transport division, which represents around 20% of total revenues, maintains an uptrend in terms of both transported volume and vehicles.

COMPAÑÍA MINERA AUTLAN, S.A.B. DE C.V.

AUTLAN B (BUY; Q419 TP: P$74.00, EXPECTED TOTAL RETURN: 46.2%)

Following the inclusion of Metallorum in the Autlan’s financial statements, we forecast year-onyear growth of +22.7% in revenues and +8.0% in EBITDA for Q318.

We also believe the company will register organic sales growth driven by higher ferroalloy production, albeit somewhat impacted by higher costs and expenses at the division.

Autlan currently trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.90x compared to a risk-adjusted multiple of 5.11x for its peers.

PLA ADMINISTRADORA INDUSTRIAL, S. DE R.L. C.V.

TERRA 13 (BUY; Q419 TP: P$31.25, EXPECTED TOTAL RETURN: 18.1%)

Fibra Terrafina (TERRA) has one of the most defensive product portfolios in the current environment of exchange rate volatility and improved prospects for NAFTA because of its dollar-denominated assets and exposure to the industrial segment.

We expect ongoing solid occupancy rates averaging above 94% as well as gradual increases in leases. We also think TERRA will continue to report attractive operating margins and dividend payouts.

At current price levels, the dividend yield could exceed 10% based on future quarterly earnings.

GRUPO ELEKTRA, S.A.B. DE C.V.

ELEKTRA * (BUY; Q419 TP: P$31.25, EXPECTED TOTAL RETURN: 20.7%)

Grupo Elektra’s revenues continue to be underpinned by adequate sales floor execution, a broad product range, competitive prices and a customer focus, which at the same time is being complemented by on-line sales that are underpinning sales growth.

Elektra has been reporting profitable growth and strict cost and expense control in addition to a focus on more profitable product categories, which are driving the EBITDA margin.

The financial side of the business should continue to underpin revenue on the back of sound growth in interest income and stable loan-loss provisions. Furthermore, the PDL ratio is the lowest of its peers.

AMÉRICA MÓVIL, S.A.B. DE C.V.

AMX L (BUY; Q419 TP:, EXPECTED TOTAL RETURN: 37.9%)

AMX continues to expand in the American continent, mainly led by Brazil and Mexico.

Average traffic data per user continues to increase at a solid pace growing +78% in Q318, doubling rates reported for Brazil, Peru and the U.S.

Results continue to reflect EBITDA and margin growth. The company is also still in the process of lowering debt.

GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO DEL SURESTE, S.A.B. DE C.V.

ASUR B (BUY; Q419 TP: P$418.00, EXPECTED TOTAL RETURN: +17.2%)

Asur’s EV/EBITDA multiple has reached the 10th percentile, so we see a very attractive entry point.

The Q318 report was encouraging due to an increase in passenger traffic, especially in September, and the inclusion of the Colombian airport in consolidated statements.



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