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Signum Research

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Signum Research

Signum Research es una empresa independiente de análisis financiero y bursátil conformada por analistas y expertos de amplia experiencia en el medio y por un consejo de asesores integrado por personalidades de alto reconocimiento en los mercados financieros. Signum Research cuenta con la más avanzada tecnología y sistemas que le permiten realizar sus cálculos y modelos analíticos de manera eficiente, en tiempo real, y publicarlos oportunamente en su portal de análisis financiero.<br /> Nos hemos establecido como meta el producir el mejor análisis bursátil independiente: un análisis oportuno, sencillo, confiable, asequible e interesante, de manera que los mercados financieros puedan ser intelectualmente accesibles a una mayor parte de la población. Nuestro objetivo final es, a través de nuestro análisis, encontrar la señal detrás del ruido cotidiano en los mercados, una señal que fundamente sólidamente nuestras recomendaciones de inversión.<br /> En Signum Research sabemos que los mercados financieros son una importante herramienta de desarrollo, Signum Research busca contribuir en la difusión de una cultura financiera y de inversión que permita a quien carezca de experiencia –pero que tenga el interés- participar del progreso que brindan los mercados financieros.<br /> Signum Research se ha asociado con The Competitive Intelligence Unit, una empresa de consultoría estratégica especializada en áreas de análisis de oportunidades de negocio, telecomunicaciones, regulación y economía para desarrollar y publicar análisis sectoriales y en materia de regulación.
13.feb.18

Signum Perspectives

América Móvil - AMX (Q418 TARGET PRICE: P$18.50, EXPECTED RETURN: 11.58%)

We believe that AMX faces less regulatory risk than in the past, as the company can currently charge its competitors interconnection fees.

We expect results in Brazil to begin to improve as of 2018 due to more favorable macroeconomic conditions.

AMX’s mobile data revenues (which account for 37% of service revenues) should continue to grow at double-digit rates for the foreseeable future (+24% y/y in 3Q17) on the back of greater SmartPhone penetration and widespread internet use.

Based on our P$18.50 per share target price, upside is 13.5%, which includes a 1.8% dividend yield.

GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO DEL SURESTE, S.A.B. DE C.V. - ASUR B (Q418 TARGET PRICE: UNDER REVIEW)

While the IPyC dropped -5.15% during the week of February 5, the share price tumbled -8.44%. This resulted in its EV/EBITDA multiple decreasing to 16.04x, despite no change in its fundamentals, after maintaining an average multiple of 17.59x year to date.

We believe the market has overreacted, as the company shows solid passenger traffic growth, a market that represents more than 80% of total revenues.

The company has also opted to diversify its business model by acquiring airports in Colombia, a country that beat its foreign visitors record in 2017.

AXTEL, S.A.B. DE C.V. - AXTEL CPO (Q418 TARGET PRICE: P$5.20, EXPECTED RETURN: 17.11%)

We expect Axtel’s business segment revenues to post average annual growth rates of 4-5% over the coming years. It is the company’s largest business.

Axtel will finally be able to focus on the business segment, which offers favorable long-term growth perspectives.

We continue to think that Axtel could become an acquisition target for other relatively larger telecommunication companies such as AT&T or Telefónica.

INDUSTRIAS BACHOCO, S.A.B. DE C.V. BACHOCO B (Q418 TARGET PRICE: P$107.00, EXPECTED RETURN: 17.78%)

The consolidation of Albertville Quality Foods (AQF) translated into higher volumes, but also increased sales costs. Furthermore, the company is set to benefit from U.S. tax reform.

Its large cash position should enable the company to continue apace with its expansion plans.

The share currently trades at a 2018E EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.9x and P/E of 10.5x, below their last 12 month averages.

BANCO DEL BAJIO, S.A., INSTITUCIÓN DE BANCA MÚLTIPLE BBAJIO O (Q418 TP: P$42.00, EXPECTED RETURN: 10.50%)

Banco del Bajío continues to report results which surpass the industry.

Loan portfolio growth is 15% y/y, the financial margin has increased 31% and the net interest margin is up by almost one percentage point.

Profitability as measured by ROE remains high.

FIBRA shop portafolios inmobiliarios, S.A.P.I. de C.V. - FSHOP13 (4Q18 TARGET PRICE: P$13.50, EXPECTED RETURN: 26.64%)

Fibra Shop (FSHOP) shows an important investment opportunity based on current prices and upcoming quarterly distributions, which should result in the highest dividend yield of the sector of around 10.8%.

Furthermore, lease agreements should reflect strong price increases in line with historical inflation.

We expect the fourth quarter 2017 report to show an average occupancy rate of around 95% with revenue growth of more than 10% y/y and operating margin stability, thus underpinning large dividend distributions.

Fomento económico mexicano s.a.b. de c.v. - FEMSA UBD (4Q18: P$191.00, EXPECTED RETURN: 13.36%)

Femsa is a defensive company in the current environment which focuses on the domestic market through the divisions Femsa Comercio, Femsa Salud and Femsa Combustibles.

Should NAFTA unravel, Coca-Cola Femsa’s inputs would feel the brunt of the impact, as they would reflect peso depreciation, but KOF’s share is diluted in Femsa.

The company is working towards merging its pharmacy brands in Mexico. Once this has been achieved, this division’s profitability could increase nearing levels registered in Chile which is a mature market and where laboratories undertake direct distribution.

GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO DEL PACÍFICO, S.A.B. DE C.V. GAP B (4Q18 TARGET PRICE: UNDER REVIEW)

We believe the market has overreacted, mainly due to global profit-taking, which has resulted in the share price tumbling -11.95% in the space of a month despite solid fundamentals.

Diversification of airports between business and pleasure travelers could translate into more stable income vs. peers.

In Q317, GAP’s airports posted passenger traffic growth of 10.2%, the highest of the sample.

Total revenues rose +6.3% driven by aeronautical revenues of P$236.1 mn (+13.4%).

GRUPO MÉXICO, S.A.B DE C.V. GMEXICO B (Q418 TARGET PRICE: P$74.00, EXPECTED RETURN: 13.36%)

The cash cost per pound of copper should remain one of the lowest internationally (US$1.as at Q417), and permit subsequent growth in operating profit. 2018 Capex is US$2.583 bn, which will mostly be used to complete the Toquepala mine and improve production at the Buenavista and Pilares mines, which should increase this division’s revenues in 2018.

The outlook for industrial metal prices is favorable. Copper prices could remain high assuming potential demand arising from new auto trends, possible U.S. infrastructure reform and China’s ongoing economic growth.

The company’s dollar-denominated sales should make it defensive in the fact of current exchange rate volatility.

GRUMA, S.A.B. DE C.V. GRUMA B (Q418: P$261.00, EXPECTED RETURN: 15.95%)

We believe that this adjustment represents a long-term BUY opportunity due to attractive fundamentals, which include a robust financial structure, strong cash flow generation, and a leading position in corn flour production.

Most of Gruma’s revenues are denominated in foreign currency, which is a natural hedge against dollar appreciation.

Last July, GRUMA bought a minority stake of 14.29% in its Gimsa subsidiary. This transaction enabled it to increase its stake in Gimsa to 99.79%.

Gruma trades at a 2018 estimated EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.1x and a P/E of 13.3x. These multiples are below historical average levels as well as the average levels of its international peers.

MEXICHEM, S.A.B. DE C.V. MEXCHEM * (4QIV TARGET PRICE: P$58.00, EXPECTED RETURN: 13.02%)

MEXICHEM is one of the largest producers of PVC resins with an approximate 30% market share. The company has plants located in a number of countries for different business segments. It has four PVC resin production plants in the U.S., so if NAFTA were cancelled, it would have no major impact on the company’s operations.

The rise in oil prices is another important factor in terms of company growth in the coming months, as in the short term it generates higher end prices for petrochemical products due to adjustments in raw material costs. The Mexican oil mix has risen +36.25% since June 2017.

GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO DEL CENTRO NORTE, S.A.B. DE C.V. OMA B (Q418 TARGET PRICE: UNDER REVIEW)

This company’s EV/EBITDA multiple underwent a strong correction last month going from 12.77x on January 9 to 11.68x last Friday.

Likewise, OMA’s share price dropped -9.18% during the same period.

Despite slower passenger traffic growth, OMA reported solid Q317 results.

Total revenues (excluding construction revenues) rose +9.9%. Aeronautical revenues rose +10.2%.

Adjusted EBITDA grew +9.8% and the EBITDA margin was 66.8%.

PROTEAK UNO, S.A.B. DE C.V. TEAK CPO (Q418 TARGET PRICE: P$30.00, EXPECTED RETURN: 71.43%)

The forestry company should continue to hold on to a large percentage of the Tecnotabla brand panels segment. A larger share of other markets like the U.S. should drive sales in this segment.

We expect an inflection point in the operating margin in the first half of 2018.

The MDF plant should remain at full nominal capacity accompanied by better operating costs thanks to new technologies implemented in Q417 and Q118.

Owing to plantation cycles, significant sales growth should not occur until 2019.

WAL-MART DE MÉXICO, S.A.B DE C.V. WALMEX * (Q418 TARGET PRICE: P$47.10, EXPECTED RETURN: 5.62%)

The company maintains its sector leadership despite Soriana’s recent acquisition of Comercial Mexicana, which could favor Walmex this year, as Soriana has to complete the name change of the acquired stores, which could distract it from its operations.

Walmex will remain focused on higher productivity in order to lower costs and offer the lowest prices. This strategy has enabled it to win market share in a number of categories.

In the event of a change in the domestic economic environment arising from the cancellation of NAFTA, Walmex is defensive as it focuses on the domestic market and imports account for only around 5% of its products.



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