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Signum Research

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Joaquín Sánchez

Joaquin Sanchez, CFA
04.sep.18

Signum Perspectives

2019 IPyC Target

Introduction We have updated our end-2019 IPyC target based on the 12-month Enterprise/Ebitda multiple and MSE-listed companies’ earnings reports.

The sample we used was the last two-year EV/EBITDA multiple, which includes observations from May 2016 to August 2018. For the purpose of our estimate, the IPyC is considered a company whose revenues and debt correspond to the sum of its constituents, thus enabling us to apply the concepts “sales,” “EBITDA,” “EBITDA margin,” “net debt” and “enterprise value,” among others, to the IPyC.

Economic Environment

Overall, the global economy is experiencing a fast-paced expansion, albeit with notable differences among regions. Although this trend is expected to continue in 2019, some risks have emerged that could stymie growth, including trade disputes. In this environment, inflation has edged higher and central banks have continued to remove their accommodative monetary policies.

The U.S. economy continues to be driven by higher household spending and business investment underpinned by an expansive fiscal policy. This expansion should continue, albeit at a slightly slower pace in the short term. Ongoing trade disputes, which are the main risk to economic growth, should not be overlooked.

The U.S. labor market remains solid, although nominal wages have not increased that much. Nevertheless, there should be a recovery in the short term. Both the headline and core inflation rates have remained slightly below the 2% target, although their return to the target is expected to be sustainable. Thus, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has indicated that it plans to continue gradually hiking interest rates, even though they may soon reach their neutral level.

Mexico’s GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2018, due to weaker investment and exports, although private consumption remained solid. As growth expectations have been revised down, the Mexican economy is showing some slack, although labor market conditions remain tight.

Furthermore, inflation has been reflecting pressure from non-core components due to higher gasoline and L.P. gas prices. The peso/dollar exchange rate has strengthened coupled with an easing of volatility. Going forward, monetary policy will likely be determined by the inflation trend and factors that influence it, although in the current environment, we expect interest rates to continue to increase.

EV/EBITDA multiple properties

The Enterprise Value/EBITDA multiple time series has an important mean reversion property: the multiple’s historical values show no trend factor because they are a seasonal series that oscillates around the mean. This property supports our using the multiple mean to project the end-2018 and 2019 values of the IPyC, and is consistent with the hypothesis of a normal distribution in recent years. In the section below, we present theoretical supporting arguments and charts.



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